Transport, Economic and Land-use Model of Scotland - TELMoS:07

A land use model provides a view of future land use and a representation of the interaction between the pattern of land use and transport demand over time. TELMoS:07 currently uses the David Simmonds Consultancy DELTA model, which “Seeks to represent the processes of change through which the decisions of actors in different markets bring about spatial development”.

The land use model has three key inputs:

• Census 2001 data and demographic forecasts
• Employment and macroeconomic forecasts
• Forecasts of land available for development based upon planning policy inputs supplied by local authorities

For any model run, the following are required:

• Definition of a scenario (selection of economic and demographic forecasts)
• Specification of the land use strategies to be tested
• Specification (and testing) of the expected responses of actors and markets

The land use model, like the transport model, is incremental. It considers changes to the pattern of land use which result from forecast changes to baseline population and employment, given the availability of land for development. There is no baseline of land use per se. The next opportunity to calibrate the responses and forecasts of the model will be following the publication of Census 2011 outputs for Scotland.

The land use model provides key inputs to TMfS:07, the transport model. The interface is described in the TMfS:07 demand model report and is illustrated in the figure below.

The model has three main sub-models which inform one another:

• the economic model
• the urban model
• the migration model

The economic model forecasts the growth or decline for different sectors of economy at regional level. Its main concern is the distribution of economic activity within Scotland. Two distinct processes are represented within this model – trade and investment. The key outputs of the economic model are changes in employment by sector and sub-region.

The urban model deals with the location of households and jobs within each area. The urban model estimates the rent values resulting from the competition for different kinds of property in each zone.

The migration model forecasts the pattern of migration of households between the different sub-regions of Scotland.

The model offers a representation of:

• 18 types of household, classified by composition and socio-economic status; for each of these, the proportions owning no car, one car or 2+ cars are modelled;
• 4 categories of persons: children, working adults, non-working adults of working age, retired persons;
• 27 categories of employment, classified by sector and (in the industrial sectors) by whether the activity is “production” or “administration” (the former employing manual workers and occupying industrial floorspace, the latter non-manual workers in office floorspace);
• 7 categories of floorspace, including housing.

The zone system for the model exactly matches that of TMfS. The areas outwith the main TMfS area are treated as Buffer Zones; these are modelled in less detail than the Fully Modelled Zones within the main TMfS area, but their inclusion means that the whole population and employment of Scotland are represented.

Key model outputs include:

• Household / individual choices
• Changes in the spatial distribution of households
• The take up of available jobs and housing by socio-economic group
• Developers choices on where and how much to develop
• Changes in land (rental) values
• Market responses for different types of floor-space (housing, retail, office, industrial)

TELMoS:07 offers an alternative source of:

• • Population, household, employment and car ownership forecasts
  • Site take-up forecasts (from a given pool of permissible development sites)
  • Forecast changes in the building stock.
  • Forecasts of the distribution of economic activity across Scotland

Note, TELMoS:07 does not offer alternative forecasts of macroeconomic performance (GDP or GVA), employment or vacant or marketable land and housing stock.

For more information about TELMoS:07, please visit the library.