These two sections should be used to summarise output (GDP/GVA) and/or employment impacts at both the local level and the national level, based on the information provided in Table 9.2.
Either GDP or GVA (GDP at basic prices, excluding taxes (less subsidies) on products) can be used to measure output. The Scottish Government uses the GVA measure in its quarterly series. Each is a standard measure of economic activity; GDP impact should be estimated on the basis of expected changes in output arising from the option. Under the heading quantitative information, there should be a brief statement of the expected impacts, expressed as a range and with an indicative time frame, for example over a 3 to 5 year horizon and with some indication of longer term impacts. Depending on the sources of impacts and the scale of the option, GDP impacts should be provided at a detailed level using an appropriate segmentation of economic activity in the in-scope area.
Under the heading qualitative information, the rationale for expecting such changes in output should be provided, and this should include the factors noted above, including in particular changes in competitiveness, labour market impacts and effects on land supply/constraints.
Where there is an expected release of constraints on land availability, such impacts should be indicated clearly. It should be noted that where a transport investment enables land which would otherwise be incapable of development to be developed for productive uses, there is potentially a local economic benefit, where the use of the land gives rise to output and employment impacts. However, it is very unlikely that no alternative site would have been available for that development, and therefore the impact at the Scotland level should be noted as zero, unless there is a convincing argument that the development would have gone elsewhere.
It is possible that even where there is no economic (output or employment) impact, because development would take place elsewhere, there may be an environmental gain, where that alternative land has a higher environmental value than that made accessible and developable through the transport intervention. If such a gain is expected, it should be noted here and quantified, if possible, in the section on environment.
The information used to estimate output changes could also provide the basis for estimation of employment changes, and similar considerations to those set out above also apply to employment impacts. Employment changes can be measured in a variety of ways, but ideally should be measured by estimating numbers in employment at different dates over the life of the option, in order to produce an estimate of person years of employment. This should be provided under the heading quantitative information.
In smaller options, simpler indicators can be used, such as jobs in snapshot years. Changes in employment are of particular interest where the project will benefit people who are unemployed or underemployed, as occurs in regeneration areas, for example. The rationale for expecting changes in employment should be provided under the heading qualitative information.
