Forecast changes in the resource cost of petrol and diesel are available from the Department for Energy and Climate Change (DECC) and the latest forecasts, published in November 2008, are presented in Table 9.20. The figures for average car and average LGV represent the change in resource cost per litre for the average car / LGV. The changes in each year for the average car reflect changes in the resource costs of petrol and diesel, the forecast increase in the proportion of traffic that are diesel cars, and that the resource cost of diesel is forecast to remain above the resource cost of petrol.
Table 9.20: Forecast growth in the resource cost of fuel|
Range of Years |
Petrol (%pa) |
Diesel (%pa) |
Average Car (%pa) |
Average LGV (%pa) |
|
2007 - 2008 |
1.88 |
4.38 |
2.58 |
4.00 |
|
2008 - 2009 |
-7.37 |
-7.71 |
-7.47 |
-7.66 |
|
2009 - 2010 |
-2.64 |
-2.75 |
-2.67 |
-2.73 |
|
2010 - 2015 |
0.58 |
0.56 |
0.57 |
0.56 |
|
2015 - 2020 |
0.57 |
0.55 |
0.56 |
0.55 |
|
2020 - 2025 |
0.55 |
0.54 |
0.54 |
0.54 |
|
2025-2030 |
0.54 |
0.52 |
0.53 |
0.52 |
|
2030 + |
0 |
0 |
0 |
0 |
Vehicle efficiency assumptions are illustrated in Table 9.21. These figures show changes in fuel consumption and therefore negative figures indicate an improvement in vehicle efficiency. It should be noted that the figures for average car and average LGV represent the change in the fuel consumption of the petrol and diesel cars / LGVs weighted according to the proportion of car / LGV traffic driven by vehicles of each fuel type. The changes in average car fuel efficiency also reflect the increasing proportion of traffic that is diesel over time, and that diesel cars are expected to remain more fuel efficient than petrol cars.
Table 9.21: Assumed Vehicle Fuel Efficiency Improvements
|
Vehicle Category |
Change in Vehicle Efficiency | ||||||||
| 2002-2003 (actual) |
2003-2004 (actual) |
2004-2005 | 2005-2010 | 2010-2015 | 2015-2020 | ||||
| (%) | (%) | (%) | (%) | (% pa) | (%) | (% pa) | (%) | (% pa) | |
| Petrol Car | -0.74 | -0.75 | -0.76 | -4.18 | -0.85 | -5.96 | -1.22 | -7.18 | -1.48 |
| Diesel Car | -1.18 | -1.19 | -1.21 | -5.95 | -1.22 | -5.84 | -1.20 | -6.03 | -1.24 |
| Average Car | -1.08 | -1.10 | -1.11 | -6.49 | -1.33 | -7.62 | -1.57 | -8.21 | -1.70 |
| Petrol LGV | -1.22 | -1.56 | -1.78 | -7.24 | -1.49 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Diesel LGV | 0.97 | -1.40 | -1.78 | -7.24 | -1.49 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Average LGV | 0.64 | -1.42 | -1.78 | -7.24 | -1.49 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| OGV1 | 0.46 | 0 | 0 | -6.0 | -1.23 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| OGV2 | -0.17 | 0 | 0 | -6.0 | -1.23 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| PSV | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
